- Recent comments by Fed Chair Jerome Powell have markets speculating a 0.25% policy rate cut at this month’s FOMC meeting. Some traders think it may even be 0.50%.
- Although the Fed doesn’t set mortgage rates, expectations of a Fed rate cut help keep rates low. Weak inflation data this week also could help keep rates low.
- Sustained labor market strength could pressure rates higher by supporting an otherwise slowing economy. Jobless claims last week fell to a 3-month low.
- Mortgage applications were down 2.4% last week, although purchase applications were up 2.0% for the week and are 5.5% year-over-year.
- Home prices are increasing, and buyers aren’t shying away from supersized mortgages. Jumbo mortgages rose for the 6th straight month in June.
- Total housing inventory at the end of May rose 1.92 million, up 2.7% from a year ago. Unsold inventory was at a 4.3-month supply at the current sales pace.
*Rate movements and volatility are based on published, aggregate national averages and measured from the previous to the most recent midweek daily reporting period. These rate trends can differ from our own and are subject to change at any time.